Thirteen Big Issues to Ponder | Texas Entrepreneur Networks

9th June 2011 ????? 0 Comments

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Dr. Dan Reed, Microsoft?s Corporate Vice President, Technology Policy and Strategy (TS&P) and the eXtreme Computing Group (XCG) raised some interesting challenges in his address to the June 7 monthly meeting of the Austin Forum on Science, Technology & Society. His talk was titled: ?Future shock: the Day after Tomorrow.?

So, instead of worrying about the payables today or some minor technical problem, here are some bigger things to get your attention. There will be detailed coverage and photos on the Austin Forum site, so I?ve just selected 13 comments that are worthy of reflection.

1. Due to the rate of technology change, your college degree will get you your 1^st or 2^nd job, but not your 8^th or 10^th. You will have to continue your education to stay relevant.

2. From one who remembered ironing a wet deck of punch cards after a thunderstorm so he could feed it into the computer, (as I too remember from GA Tech days), he said over his career a Gigabyte had gone from ?nation class? to ?kindergarten class.?

3. He also remembered that not very long ago a ?friend? was someone you actually knew.

4. His fundamentally believes in knowing how to ask the right questions, which matter more than the answers. In computing the questions don?t change but the answers do ? because orders of magnitude change.

5. When asked how many computers we own, most of us might reply 4 or 5. Actually we all own thousands of computers if you count those in our cars, appliances, and medical devices. From that he concludes that successful technologies ultimately become invisible.

6. In what he called ?The Internet of Things? he mentioned that there will be 50B connected devices by 2020 ? more devices than people. There could even be a connected ?squirm? sensor in your chair so a speaker would know if he?s boring his audience.

7. We are reaching the limits of Moore?s law, and the rate of computing advances to which we have become accustomed is not happening anymore. With transistors now only about 5 atoms thick, we are running into quantum mechanics issues. He referred to ?Dark Silicon? ? already more transistors on a chip than we can turn on without literally melting the chip.

8. We are drowning in data. There were 1.2 x 10^21 new bytes of data created in 2010.

9. The cost of monthly web storage has dropped from $1250 pre Gigabyte to jus $.15 since the year 2000. All that ?free? storage is like free puppy, expenses come later in terms of security issues, actually using the data, etc. The limiting factors of data centers have now become energy and water consumption.

10. Dr. Reed mentioned that each day astronomers collect more data than in all days prior in history, and we can now analyze real data instead of creating simulations to try to comprehend large problems.

11. He thinks computing can create for us the equivalent of a good personal assistant, one that leverages memory, anticipates needs, holistically completes tasks, understands your emotions, and recognizes patterns. (In light of certain current events with misbehaving politicians, this brings to mind all kinds of bad jokes, which I will avoid in this case.)

12. He also talked about verifiable privacy and security. His example was showing your drivers license to prove your age in a liquor store. You?ve provided much more data than needed, including your photo, and there needs to some way of limiting that to what he called ?claims based identity? that has a short and defined life span for its intended purpose only.

13. Spectrum shortage made his list as well. Most spectrum is unused most of the time, due to fixed allocations that are determined internationally by treaty. We need to have intelligent and dynamic allocation of spectrum to accommodate the growth of mobile computing. This is a prime example of technology changes outstripping social policies.

Congratulations to the Austin Forum for a very interesting, packed house monthly event with such a renowned speaker.

<photo of Dr. Reed from Austin Forum web site>

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About Ben Dyer

Ben J. Dyer is the president of TechDrawl LLC, which produces the video blog TechDrawl promoting technology business across the South. He and his partners also consult with early-stage companies with respect to business strategy, product development and capital acquisition. They are actively engaged in software development for a variety of Consumer Internet clients.

Source: http://txenetworks.com/2011/06/09/thirteen-big-issues-to-ponder/

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